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多晶需求弱 多晶硅片跌幅加剧

本周多晶需求依旧平淡,整体多晶供应链倍感压力,成交量低迷,更使得库存较多的多晶硅片价格显得积弱不振,后势看跌。

硅料

下游多晶硅片不仅价格跌势加剧,也已开始规划后续开工率的调整,多用于多晶硅片长晶的菜花料本周已难上涨,成交价如上周停留在每公斤127元人民币上下,而多用于单晶长晶的致密料仍是需求旺盛,价格小幅上涨至每公斤133元,然而受到菜花料价格开始感受到压力的影响,预期致密料价格已达高峰。

海外市场部分,虽先前瓦克正式复工后,海外硅片厂对硅料的买气暂时转为观望,然在海外硅片厂尚未出现开工率下调的情形之前,依旧持续有新订单成交,价格小涨至每公斤14.6 – 16.5元美金。

硅片

在单晶硅片龙头厂隆基五月价格释出之后,整体单晶硅片价格大致稳定,本周持稳在国内每片4.45元人民币、海外0.61元美金,而低阻单晶硅片则是国内每片4.5元人民币、海外0.62元美金。

多晶硅片状况则不乐观:受到市场需求倒向单晶影响,多晶硅片库存持续累积,不少厂商已纷纷传出欲下调开工率的消息,然而目前多晶硅片厂库存压力高,预期在开工明显下降之前,价格都将持续下跌,国内价格由上周每片3.45元人民币跌至本周3.35元人民币,最低甚至出现3.2元人民币,海外则是从上周0.49元美金跌至0.47元美金,且后市仍然看跌。

此多晶硅片价格已低于不少厂商的现金水位,开工率下调已是势在必行。

电池片

单晶PERC、常规单晶电池片价格趁着需求旺盛持续反攻,常规单晶上涨至国内每瓦1.52元人民币上下、海外约0.208元美金,单晶PERC价格则来到每瓦1.6 – 1.62元人民币上下、海外不少成交都在每瓦0.23元美金以上。N型电池片也因为领跑者得标量优于预期,而使得近期订单热度高。

不同于单晶电池片需求旺盛、议价能力较强,海外多晶电池片已先一步感受到多晶需求偏弱的压力,价格稍有让步,18.6%以上的电池片来到每瓦0.180 – 0.181元美金上下,虽国内电池目前仍在每瓦1.37 – 1.4元人民币持稳,但由于换算美金两岸已出现明显价差,预期后续国内多晶电池片也将逐步感受到压力。

组件

近期国内组件价格并未出现太大的波动,然而企业欲消化手上的多晶组件库存,使得海外价格持续走跌,尤其先前价格一直高档持稳的印度市场近期降价明显,价格已来到每瓦0.31-0.32元美金上下。目前看来,630抢装已难有太大期待,组件价格目前只能期待维稳,难见上涨。

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