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淡季再临!电池片价格崩跌

随春节假期逐步接近,大陆内需项目陆续停摆,不少一线组件大厂开始冻结对外的电池采购以及组件外包订单,再加上部分电池厂对印度的出货转趋保守,使得本周多晶电池片价格崩跌,预期将陆续出现电池片厂商开工率下降的情形,正式宣告了光伏市场淡季再度来临。

硅料

虽然淡季已至,但多晶硅片厂目前皆维持满产,使得硅料供应依旧紧张,近期在每公斤153 - 158元人民币高档维稳。

硅片

受到多晶电池片、组件价格快速下探影响,多晶硅片虽目前量、价尚称稳定,但对即将来临的淡季已做好心理准备,本周价格普遍下调0.005元美金,海外价格来到每片0.635元美金。

单晶适逢龙头厂释出新报价前夕,价格并未出现太大波动,单晶硅片大致维稳在上周水平:大厂价格每片5.4元人民币、0.725元美金左右,中、小型厂在每片5.1 – 5.3元人民币、0.7 - 0.71元美金区间。目前看来,单晶产品的高性价比让硅片需求及价格已暂时止稳,单晶产品的需求略见回温。

电池片

上周多晶电池片甫开启跌势,本周即出现一天一价的快速下跌,价格从上周每瓦1.65元人民币直接跌至本周每瓦1.55-1.58元人民币,且市场上已出现每瓦1.5元人民币的成交价。

海外价格约落在每瓦0.205 –0.21元美金,若国内价格持续往每瓦1.5人民币靠拢,非大陆产能成本较高、难以继续跟进,开工率可能明显下降。18.2-18.4%转换效率的低效多晶电池片近期更是呈崩盘状态,价格凌乱。

单晶方面,虽单晶需求已略有回温,但由于整体大环境冷清,常规单晶、单晶PERC电池片成交量依然较少,虽大多厂商表示价格已见持稳,仍有部分厂商持续跌价,成交价差较大,单晶PERC电池片价格大致落在每瓦1.7 – 1.8元人民币、0.225 – 0.235元美金左右。

组件

由于国内电站厂商采购量急剧下滑,单、多晶组件价格持续下探,常规多晶组件价格跌至每瓦2.6 – 2.65元人民币之间,且跌势持续中。目前看来二、三月会是上半年中需求最淡的时间点,今年厂商的农历年前备货意愿不强,预期市场需求将由一月一路冷清至春节后。

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