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供应链价格探底 玻璃酝酿涨价

硅料价格

本周硅料价格保持上周价格,由于下周包含硅片、电池片预计有新一波报价,因此整体供需变化在下周应该会有较清楚的态势。硅料目前的供需关系较稳定,但预计九月硅料的供应会较八月增加,市场的需求是否能同时成长,将关系下个月的硅料价格走势。不过目前也观察到市场上多晶的低价料源减少,也带动海外多晶料的成交热度,整体来看单、多晶用料的供应尚属平衡。

硅片价格

本周硅片价格无明显变化,下周将揭晓九月的价格,考虑目前市况、单晶电池片的价格、单多晶电池片产线切换的因素等,预估单晶硅片的价格将持平或降价。目前二线的硅片企业已经有价格松动的迹象,如中环、隆基真的引领降价,较可能的价格会在每片3.05元人民币上下。

多晶本周也维持在上周价格,目前看来九月的国内价格持平,海外则还有空间降价,幅度将在每片0.005美元以内。如九月市场优于预期,多晶硅片相对单晶硅片反而较为抗跌。

电池片价格

PERC电池片在过去一个半月间大幅降价之后已经接近底部,虽然仍有组件厂要求更低的价格,但由于九月市场需求有望回温,电池厂大多坚守在近期价格水平,静待下周新一个月的价格商谈。本周价格未出现明显变动,持稳在每瓦0.90-0.92元人民币。海外价格则因应人民币的贬值而持续小幅跌价,目前价格大多落在每瓦0.122-0.125元美金之间。

双面PERC电池片部分,虽然电池厂报价都是单、双面同价,但由于双面电池片供应仍大多集中在一线大厂,因此以市场均价来看仍略高于单面,但单、双面均价出现价差仅是市场价格跌速过快的短期现象,待价格变化趋缓时单双面持续同价的趋势不变。

多晶电池片近期价格也已来到底部,本周维持在每瓦0.81-0.82元人民币上下。

组件价格

八月下旬许多项目招投标开始启动,因此九月上旬对组件的拉动虽不如先前预期般旺盛,但九月中过后市场应能逐渐步入今年的旺季。目前看来竞价项目中单晶产品的比重将高于多晶,然而四季度价格走势仍需观察组件拉货时间的集中程度。

光伏玻璃价格

鉴于中国国内竞价项目陆续招标,看来九月整体需求将优于八月,因此本来供应就较紧张的光伏玻璃环节出现上涨意象,但由于组件近期稍有跌价,因此玻璃实际成交价暂未出现变动,下周价格趋势才能够明朗。

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