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整体供应链价格转弱 唯光伏玻璃价格逆势上扬

硅料价格

本周国内硅料上下游仍在博弈中,但单晶部分较稳定,除了需求持稳外,单晶硅片的涨价也给了单晶用硅料一定的支撑。但随着国内的硅料新增产能持续放量,价格再上涨的可能性降低。

目前市场的价差略微拉大,各家企业状况不一,但总体来看,本周主流价格依旧维持在之前的水平。而随着下游市场对于后市较保守,目前仍是预估三月下旬的硅料价格有下跌的可能性。海外部分,仍有硅料陆续成交,但后续的市况不明也抑制了价格的涨势。

硅片价格

本周单、多晶硅片的价格,除了海外单晶硅片因为汇率因素有所上涨外,其他价格基本持平,但多晶硅片的国内价格已经出现松动,实际成交价在高、低价部分都已经滑落。虽目前的均价还在每片2.12元人民币左右,但预期下周主流价格会明显滑落,二线价格也会继续下跌。

海外多晶以及国内单晶需求依旧,两者价格不动,但随着一季度即将结束,预期二季度的需求还是偏弱,硅片的价格在上下游的带动下难有涨幅,整体来看,硅片的全年低点应就会在四、五月。

电池片价格

上周组件厂大力对PERC电池片价格施压,降幅明显,但电池片厂家仍努力稳定转换效率21.5%及以上的PERC电池片价格,加上市场仍有PERC电池片需求,使得本周21.5%及以上的PERC电池片市场价格维稳在每瓦1.25-1.26元人民币。

然而组件厂的采买目标价仍低于目前价格水位,且单晶PERC电池片的产能仍在逐步增加,故预期本月底单晶PERC电池片价格仍将再次出现价格明显向下的情况。

多晶电池片部分,由于三月下旬印度抢装潮将逐渐结束,虽然本周整体多晶电池片价格持稳,但第三地输印度的电池片已逐渐感受到需求转弱的氛围,预期后续多晶电池片仍将随需求降温而出现跌价。

组件价格

组件方面,今年需求明显集中在下半年,因此市场即将迎来今年度较淡的季度。预期待三月底印度及日本的传统旺季结束后,组件需求将有较明显的转弱,届时单、多晶组件的价格也会开始缓跌。

但由于今年淡季较短,市场需求可能在五月触底之后,六月又逐步回温,因此今年整体组件价格跌幅有限。甚至年底有可能因为需求火热、中上游涨势明显,让组件价格在下半年出现小幅回涨情形。

光伏玻璃价格

上周光伏玻璃价格仍在买卖双方僵持,而本周随着新订单陆续成交,市场普遍出现每平方米1-3元人民币的涨幅。去年下旬以来的玻璃价格一路上涨无疑垫高了组件成本,但随着今年淡季将至,预期玻璃价格已达近期高点。

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