现货价格

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一月单晶产品需求仍旺 电池片价格再度上涨

*因应市场效率提升,下月起PV InfoLink将取消转换效率21.4%之单晶PERC电池片报价。

硅料价格

本周硅料价格全面维持,月底仍以前期订单交货为主,一月价格确认签订的不多。

目前致密料价格由于海外硅料厂的价格往下施压,国内大厂也在坚守底线,因此高低价差不大,议价价格依旧在每公斤82-78元人民币之间。菜花料价格也保持在之前的水平,价差区间亦小,主流价格就在每公斤73元上下一块钱人民币的范围。2019年1月的订单价格将视农历年前的需求以及备货力道决定。

海外部分,尽管年底有换现金的刺激,但成交价格仍基本平稳,主流还是在每公斤8.3-9美元之间。

硅片价格

本周硅片价格在隆基确定不调整一月价格后,基本全线价格稳定,维持上周水平。多晶硅片部分,虽然下游电池片价格有所涨价,但目前多晶硅片价格仍是没有太大的变化,仍维持在每片2.05-2.1元人民币之间。

海外多晶硅片价格,随着汇率以及海外多晶转单晶产品的趋势变化,价格主要还是在每片0.265美元。目前来看,硅片价格近期应都保持目前的水平,一月中下旬的变化将视备货需求决定。

电池片价格

无论是国内或海外,一月SE-PERC电池片需求依然强劲,加上农历年前的备货潮,供应仍略显紧张,使得单晶PERC电池片价格再度起涨,转换效率21.5%及以上的单面电池片价格来到国内每瓦1.28-1.3元人民币、海外0.162-0.165元美金。台湾单晶PERC电池片价格则高档维稳在每瓦0.17-0.178元美金。

而一月有印度、日本、及年底备货潮支撑,让多晶电池片价格也能小幅拉抬,来到每瓦0.86-0.9元人民币,海外成交价格则来到每瓦0.108-0.115元美金。

在目前的组件价格水平下,电池片价格的不断上涨让组件厂备感压力,故预期单晶PERC电池片、多晶电池片涨幅皆已达高点。

组件价格

组件部分,明年一季度PERC组件订单能见度佳,使得12月中旬以来部分组件厂先后上调国内外单晶PERC组件报价,但受到终端市场的压力,实际成交价仍难拉抬,明年一季度订单大多仍是以目前价格水平成交,310W PERC组件价格将持续稳定在每瓦2.2-2.3元人民币的价格区间。

多晶组件方面,虽然陆续传出不少垂直整合大厂一季度接单畅旺,但仍有许多组件厂的多晶组件订单尚未接满,使得虽然12月底对一月的多晶组件报价信心略有增温,但一季度的常规多晶组件成交价仍明显向下。

整体而言,组件订单需求直至农历年前仍保持畅旺,但农历年后将呈现淡季不淡、或是需求情况反转,仍须静待后续国内指标出台情况而定。

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