现货价格

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短期需求不受1102会议影响 2019H2好年再临

硅料价格

本周硅料价格不论是致密料或菜花料基本都维稳。尽管有数家硅料企业在11月选择检修或是停产,但由于市场需求一般,在供需都减量的情况下,价格持平。同时由于硅料企业没有进一步往下报价的态势,买方也保持观望的态度,整体成交不算多,部分成交订单也是维持上周价格水位。

虽然上周传出可能有新的十三五安装量规划目标,但基本上政策对于市场的影响在中长期。因此短期来看,硅料价格还是从供需情况来反映。海外硅料市场依旧冷清,价格也基本保持不变。

硅片价格

单、多晶硅片价格如同硅料价格也几乎持平,但国内多晶硅片的需求在11月仍是偏弱,价格虽然在本周持稳,但后续可能还是会呈现缓跌的态势。单晶硅片则在上月调整价格后,各家都保持相同报价。海外部分的多晶硅片价格则是更贴近国内的价格,基本上两者已经不存在价差。

预估在硅料持稳的情况下,硅片的价格变化幅度不大,唯多晶需求较弱,低价仍有向下空间。单晶硅片的供应在11月则是略为紧张,但基本上供货无虞。

电池片价格

PERC电池片在十一月上旬持续维持一片难求的态势,但受到目前价格已让组件厂备感压力,近期单晶PERC电池片价格已较为平稳,本周价格与上周持平。

普通效率的单晶PERC电池片价格在每瓦1.12-1.16元人民币上下、海外价格则持稳在每瓦0.145-0.146元美金。在领跑者所需的高效电池片部分,转换效率21.5%+双面发电的PERC电池片本周高档维稳在每瓦1.25元人民币、21.5%+单面发电的PERC电池片普遍落在1.16-1.2元人民币之间。

台湾电池片厂商虽然在欧洲MIP取消之后状况不佳,但近期受到台湾本土需求畅旺,台湾PERC电池片价格再次上涨,报价来到每瓦0.158-0.165元美金,但基本上极少对海外出货。

目前看来十二月整体市场氛围相较十一月可能较弱,尤其多晶电池片目前需求仍然偏弱,出货量在十二月可能进一步减少。

组件价格

1102会议让市场对明年中国内需再次充满信心,PV InfoLink认为明年全球需求将回升至110GW以上,产业将再次迎来一个好年。但农历年前的需求及价格并不受会议内容影响,故近期国内组件价格仍然较为平稳,海外组件价格维持缓步下跌的态势。

综观明年各季度需求,农历年前可能仍须赶装部分来不及完成的领跑者项目、印度和日本也因为财年即将结束而持续拉货,故需求虽在农历年前持续减弱,但最淡的时刻可能落在农历年后至中国内需再次大幅发动之时,故预期四月前后整体供应链价格可能达到低点,2019下半年整体光伏行业则再次欣欣向荣。

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PV InfoLink的现货价格主要来自平时与业界的面谈、
电话访问或通讯软体等沟通渠道讨论所取得,参考超过100家厂商之信息。
主要取市场上最常成交的众数数据作为均价(并非加权平均值)、
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