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单晶风向续强 价格呈现单多晶两样情

硅料

本周硅料如预期在十一假期之后持续缓跌,目前致密料价格落在每公斤87元人民币左右,而单晶硅片大厂的买价目标已经低于每公斤85元人民币,因此预估后续硅料与硅片企业之间依旧要拉扯,但价格近期大概率仍会缓跌。

菜花料则因为硅片的价格持续下滑,料价也跟着下降,部分二线硅料厂的报价已经跌破至7开头价位,多数大厂则僵持在每公斤80元人民币。海外部分,虽然卖方持续主动降价,但低迷的需求依旧没有起色,实际成交价持续下修。

硅片

由于多晶市场仍弱,在硅片持续产出的情况下,价格仍有议价空间。国内多晶硅片主流价格落在每片2.15元人民币。10、11月对于多晶来说仍是压力重重,价格还会因为硅料的跌价恶性循环下滑。预估十月多晶硅片企业的开工率应不会回到满产。

海外部分则小幅反映月初议价空间,微跌至每片0.283元美金。由于美金报价与人民币报价存在价差,后续海外价格可能还会下滑,但前提是要海外的多晶硅片有实际需求产生。单晶方面,目前大厂都未有宣布调整价格,且单晶市况相对较好,因此预估在短期内价格都不会有所调整。

电池片

电池片依旧维持十一长假前的情形,仅管海外需求不差,多晶需求仍不见起色,价格仍缓步向下,18.6%及以上的多晶电池片价格来到每瓦0.105-0.107元美金,国内价格则从节前每瓦0.88元人民币下跌至0.85-0.88元人民币。

单晶PERC不仅国内需求强劲,海外需求也大多以单晶PERC 300W / 305W为主,使得普通效率的单晶PERC电池片在海内外小幅走扬,海外价格回升到每瓦0.145元美金上下、国内价格则落在1.1-1.15元人民币之间。

常规多晶电池片价格在短期内都将持续低迷,仅国内一线垂直整合厂、一线电池片厂还能保有目前全产的开工率。单晶PERC则因为有领跑者的助力,预期四季度的价格都能较有支撑。

组件

近期中国国内需求不仅310W、315W的领跑者高效组件需求佳,300W常规PERC组件需求亦在九月开始略有增温,使得国内单晶PERC组件价格在四季度有所支撑。

多晶的需求则依然偏弱,一线厂家价格大约落在每瓦1.85-1.88元人民币,与二线厂家普遍落在1.8元人民币上下的价格拉开较大差距。

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