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上游跌势趋缓 中下游单晶产品开启快速下跌走势

硅料

大陆国内硅料价格跌势已近底部,本周价格尽管些微向下,但幅度已经收敛到5%以下。海外硅料则有补跌的现象,随着部分小量成交出现,价格相较前周有较大幅度修正。本周国内菜花料价格落在每公斤75 - 80元人民币、致密料则在每公斤95元人民币上下。

目前硅料价格已经大致稳定,菜花料每公斤75元人民币,致密料90元都已经是近期普遍对于低点的共识,加上多数硅料企业开始陆续安排检修,预计下周国内硅料价格不会再有进一步下跌。海外则因为多数硅片厂仍旧开工率极低,因此市场价格持续量缩下跌。目前硅料海外美金现货价格与国内人民币价格,经过换算已经又回到同一水平上。

硅片

单晶硅片企业在本周又进行了一次价格调整,再度将单、多晶硅片的价差拉回到每片0.9-1元人民币。本周除了隆基宣布常规单晶硅片,降至每片3.35元人民币、海外0.445元美金外。中环也宣布常规单晶硅片价格,降至每片3.32元人民币,低阻单晶硅片价格则是每片3.37元人民币。

由于之前单、多晶硅片价差过大,因此从七月的市场需求来看,多晶的需求略有回升,而单晶则有稍微下滑的情势。整体来说,单晶硅片企业积极将价差带回每片1元人民币以内也属合理战略。但由于上游硅料的价格已经维稳,加上库存减少、硅片部分停产等供给条件减少,预估单、多晶硅片在七月的价格将维持平稳,大幅跌价的可能性已小。

电池片

随着630需求已经终结,一线垂直整合大厂也开始减少常规单晶、单晶PERC电池片的采购量,使得单晶电池片产品价格开始大幅调降,单晶PERC价格来到每瓦1.25-1.33元人民币、0.19元美金上下,利润开始受到挤压。常规单晶近期则是难以找到需求,虽本周不少厂商尚未释出新报价,但预期短期内将有明显下降以刺激后续订单量。

海外多晶订单随先前多晶产品的高性价比开始回温,人民币报价已开始止稳、海外则因为人民币汇率的波动而使得美金报价稍有下跌,整体而言,多晶订单已开始回流,甚至开始有部分厂商提升多晶电池片开工率、或是将部分常规单晶产线转向多晶。

组件

虽然欧洲MIP的后续走向并未明确,但欧洲组件价格在上周德国慕尼黑的InterSolar Europe展会期间仍快速下跌,也加速带动全球组件降价。单晶PERC组件陆续跌破每瓦0.34元美金,常规多晶组件低于0.29元美金也很常见。

由于先前单晶、单晶PERC价格基期较高,加上海外目前多晶需求较盛,预期近期价格仍将有明显下滑。

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